RE:JUST A THOUGHT. In my opinion, CGX will eventually be valued higher then Frontera. CGX's offshore assets represents the crown jewel of Frontera's future valuation.
We are not talking about hundreds of millions of dollars. We are talking billions.
The asset base Frontera has in Colombia require consistent intervention, stimulation and work over - just to sustain production. These assets are capital intensive and are usually characterized as having a breakeven around $55/bbl. It will take years for Frontera to get Colombia production back to levels to where they once were. Recall, production is down roughly 40% pre Covid.
What is of great interest and value is replicating what Exxon has with Liza. Specifically, highly productive reservoirs, standard well architecture, high quality oil with low breakevens ($25-$30/bbl).
Part of that requires a favorable PPL - which really no longer exists in the Guyana-Suriname basin. Oil has been found - the basin has been de-risked. New offshore licenses will be issued by the government of Guyana and Suriname - but, certainly no where similar to those that were issued pre Liza discovery.
How does Frontera get its stock price to $15? I don't think it's possible given their Colombia asset base. The best shot they have to maximizing Frontera value is how they manage their equity investment in CGX.
As mentioned in prior posts, de Alba is not looking to settle on selling CGX for a few dollars. They are looking to sell at tens of dollars.
GLTA