RE:Valuation If you are interested in running a valuation for CGX (exploration / prospect inventory) use the attached as a general template.
Generally, Kawa represents a 500mmboe sized prospect (based on recent Apache earnings call). Lot's of questions here as Kawa will penetrate three independent fans (campanian, upper Santonian, and lower Santonian).
500mmboe * .67% interest * $6.5/bbl (in the ground) = US $2.18B.
When Apache announced its first several discoveries - Citi valued each discovery (supporting a large FPSO of 220k) between ~$3.5 to $4 per share (given their 50% interest in the block). 388 million shares out * $3.5 or $4 = worth they pegged a valuation of $1.36B to $1.55B. Or, ~$30M per 1% interest.
So, $30M * CGX's 67% interest = ~$2B. Both valuation run by Citi and Berenberg point to a similar valuation.
In addition, analysts will probably apply a de-risking assessment across the remaining un-drilled prospects within the northern Corentyne area. For this basin - I see analysts use $2/bbl. Say conservatively we are looking at another 2B of high quality undrilled prospects in northern Corentyne with risk at 40% PoS - $2/bbl * 2 billion * 40% PoS = ~$1.6B.
I don't know where you can up with the 50mmboe recoverable resource figure for Kawa - but, that is incorrect. The shallow campanian / maastrichtian discoveries made by Exxon are on average 300mmboe in size (recoverable resource). The deeper Santonian target is on average 500mmboe in size (recoverable resource).
Stacked pay across Kawa - might be a bigger number than what has been made public...
I am going to assume $8 base / low case for Kawa success and northern Corentyne de-risking. Second well success in Demerara probably gets us to $15 low case.
Sit back - relax. This is the fun part. The hard part was getting here...