CALM, PATIENCE, & EXCITEMENT Lots of good posts on this board.
Yes, OIL_RUN has been accumulating shares as the CGX share price dipped below the rights offering.
We just heard from Frontera last week and they have not yet drilled through the three prospective targets. Most importantly, Frontera revealed late last week that no significant operational setbacks have been encountered drilling Kawa and they expect the well to reach TV given original time frame of December.
Furthermore, they have re-designed the Kawa well for two contingency strings (plus the 9-5/8 section). The read through here - they are "good to go" and are drilling the well within their original time frame.
There are probably different trading strategies here - but, for OIL_RUN, I am holding my shares until Kawa results are released. If, Kawa is successful and CGX/Frontera move to drill the NW fan structure - I likely will be holding my position to see those results as well.
All the share price volatility we have seen since spudding Kawa, in my opinion, is just noise. The real (and only) l catalyst is Kawa results.
As most of you are aware, I have been following, investiing, and operationally participating in the Trans Atlantic-Margin play since the original discovery of Jubilee offshore Ghana (by Kosmos and Tullow). If there was a grandfather to Liza - it would be Jubilee.
We are talking about a similar source rock that was deposited over 100 million years ago that spans the two continents offshore Africa and Latin America.
In the context of the broader Atlantic Margin play, industry has seen ~20 years worth of exploration wells drilled from Namibia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Benin, Equatorial Guinea, Senegal, Mauritania, Morocco, South Africa, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil, Falkland Islands, etc.
Some of these exploration wells have been drilled on the shelf targeting reef play concepts and have been successful (Carin - SNE). Other wells have been drilled on the abyssal plain and have been successful (Kosmos - Tortue, etc). Finally, there have been a number of wells drilled on the slope margin. Again - not all exploration wells successful. Each basin slightly different.
However, if one looks at the failures across the broader Atlantic Margin, most failures are due to undeveloped or uneconomic reservoirs. All key ingredients were there (source, migration, trap, etc) - but, the thick coarse highly porous, sand-stone reservoir.
Robin Sutherland at Tullow put a great technical paper outlining this topic in the mid-2000s. Therein, emphasized the importance of identifying giant turbidites as part of a comprehensive / geological basin modeling exercise.
So, of the broader Atlantic Margin Concept, where do we find these giant turbidites? What is the source of these giant turbidites?
Well, look no further than the giant Berbice Canyon feeder system. Ladies and gentlemen, the Berbice Canyon is the largest underwater feeder system that has been identified across the Atlantic margin. Some geologists estimate it could be 5 to 10 times the size of the Grand Canyon.
The Berbice Canyon feeder system is the source for which giant turbidite sandstone fans were deposited in Block 58 and the SE corridor of the Stabroek license.
You bet, we are sitting at the mouth of that Canyon feeder system.
As Jennifer Budlong stated a few weeks ago, the closer we are to the mouth of Berbice Canyon feeder system - we should expect to encounter thicker coarse reservoirs than those directly analogues to us in Block 58.
It's all coming together and results on Kawa will be announced at the right time setting the stage for CGX's next well.
When the music stops, do you have a chair to sit in?
Some think that they can jump into an opportunity like this next year or a few years from now. Well, for offshore exploration, I don't think we will ever see an opportunity like this again. In fact, Exxon (the super majors of super majors) have already stated they never have seen anything like it. Describe this basin as a "fairly tale".
The music is still playing and will likely play until December...do you have a chair?