RE:Waitingstill & WestcanprideHi Phantom, thank you for those kind words.
I definitely wish my prediction of a share price drop never did happen since the spudding of Kawa-1! Unfortunately, we have seen three pushes of the share price to ~1.00 CAD since then (mid October, early November and now in early-mid December). Thankfuly meaningful resistence is holding the share price at this $1.00 level (which coincidentally was also the 'ceiling' from early March-early June). In some technical books, this is considered a "triple bottom" and is followed by a bullish run upwards. Let's pray this happens. Maybe even dirk has read something similar in his fancy textbooks haha!
As for your questions:
1) I think we probably sit at $1.00 +/- 10% until news is released. I bought some additional shares on Friday with the profits I booked back in early September. Hopefully those 2-5x upon news release in the coming days/weeks.
* Curiously, if you look at the share price over the past three weeks, every-time retail purchases any meaningful shares (>10k, as admitted on either here or stocktwits/my own personal purchases), the share price goes no where. Yet, 100-500 shares literal minutes later are sold at .01-0.02 cents cheaper on the bid and the share price goes down. Additionally, as many have pointed out, its RBC doing the overwhelming majority of major selling (i.e., providing the >10k shares being purchased by retail/insiders). To me, and others, this is nothing but a coordinated attack downwards. Hopefully we do not fall much below $1... then again, without any news, I could see a more stop loss attacks to shake out more easy shares in the next week or so. These money managers have no soul and will do anything to make a buck (especially since they have insider knowledge of what is happening... make no mistake, they do!).
2) I guess this is the million dollar question (to some)! I would love to see the share price sky-rocket well above $5. That would be a storybook ending no doubt. Saying that, someone (either retail or insiders) will need to want to purchase a major amount of shares being offloaded by long-time shareholders. Many on this board have professed to own over 500,000 shares and many I would wager have well over 100,000 shares. Many of these long-time shareholders are also quite older (>50 years of age, some probably 60) and will not want to keep holding CGX forever. Eventually they will want to enjoy that cash that has been tied up for close to two decades, and a successful Kawa-1 well will provide that opportunity. Imagine if a lot of these shares are being offloaded in mere hours upon the release of good news... that in theory would have a downward impact on share price. Then again, who knows. I just hope we fly whoever its unfolds.
* I think the bigger question will be... what is Frontera's end game? If they cannot get a JV they want, even with a successful Kawa-1 well, no way in hell will they finance a new upcoming well at anything greater than than $2/share. They simply do not have the money. I guess it will be interesting to see how much pressure Bharrat Jagdeo applies on CGX/Frontera to drill a well following Kawa-1 and how that impacts internal decisions (and ultimately share price as well).
As for the delay in news, which seems to be on everyone's minds. I think this Kawa-1 well has yielded positive results. If this well was a duster, they would have finished it and let us know ASAP. Since November 1, when they were at top of the reservoir zones, it has only been ~43 days. If they did hit oil in the first secondary target, guaranteed they tried to collect sidewall cores, fluid (oil) samples, and also get pressure tests on the sandstones. These three tests would take 3-5 days alone, at a minimum. Maybe they even did speciality well-logs like formation imager, which would take an addition 3-4 days. Additionally, they probably set a liner after the first secondary target (why risk anything?). That again would take another 5-10 days. Right there you have close too two weeks (mid-November... and that is assuming they started drilling following the news release and had no drilling challenges). Rinse and repeat again for the primary reservoir zone. Plus, once they do finish drilling the well, the office geologists, petrophysists, and engineers will want to fully understand the data before allowing managment to make pre-mature statements. For example, the defintion of "net-pay" likely involves a combination of oil saturation, porosity, and Vclay... this takes a little bit of time to calculate. No way managemen releases any news before they get the "net-pay' numbers fully correct.
As always, let's see what the rest of December holds. I am definitely not happy to see $1.00 right now, but I have picked up a good amount of shares at two of the three lows we have encoutered.... hopefully these pay off soon enough and makes this whole sage worth it.
Cheers and thank you again for the kind words.