RE:WCM - MODELHi Oil Run,
Yes, you are correct that significantly higher pay thicknesses could be used to calculate a rough OOIP, based on offset analogs. With that, in my experience, it is also highly unlikely that the entire net reservoir thickness would encompass the whole 10,000 acres (as provided on the seismic image). If we were dealing with shoreface sandstones, yes, it could easily be argued that there could be a correlation between the seismic amplitude and well thickness. But we are dealing with channelized deposits, and like Apache has seen in their appraisal wells, the net resrvoir thickness can thin quickly from one location to the next. Throw in faults and the calculation can become even more tricky (as seen in the link I sent yesterday for the Husky fields offshore Canada). This is probably why no P10-50-90 was provided by management. My guess is that the 10,000 acres is their high-case (P10) estimate.
Probably more important short term is the assessment of the porosity and water saturation when they do finish drilling this well, so hopefully the can acquire some good quality sidewall core plugs and well-logs (NMR, ADT, T1-T2, Sonic, etc).
Saying all this, if they hit a >100 ft thick reservoir, we will all be very successful in our investment.
Many thanks for that message Oil Run! Certainly big numbers in any event.