RE:RE:WCM - MODEL Phantomblogger -
Most investment analysts (Citi, Bank of America, etc) utilize a $/boe in the ground valuation for exploration based E&P assets. This is based on recoverable resource expectations. See link with use of this methodology: https://www.ecooilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Eco_Atlantic_Flash_Note_2019.03.19_CPR_H_P.01.pdf
I have seen analysts use $4.5/boe to $8.5/boe pending oil quality, reservoir, recovery rates, fiscal terms, etc. For the Guyana basin (cretaceous sandstone reservoirs) and brent above $75/bbl - we probably are in the +$6.5/bbl range.
So, you have seen the dialogue between WCP, myself and others draw raw estimates on the resource potential of Kawa. Pending the actual net pay encountered in H23 and / or H25 - the estimated recoverable resource numbers can vary considerably.
Of course, you also have seen the numbers and figures provided by the the Block 58 venture group (our closest analogue to Kawa) as well as third party investment analysts (Citi, Bank of America, etc).
My personal estimate on Kawa is 600mmboe (~225 net ft of pay) with an upside to 1,200mmboe (~450 net from of pay). So, anywhere between US $2.6B to $5.2B in value.
We might also get a favorable risked valuation (sub $2/boe) for the NW fan complex in the Northern Corentyne Area should Kawa be successful. You also have to account for the other prospects located on the Corentyne license, the Demerara block, and the port.
In addition, you will also probably need to account for a "strategic venture" of some story that would likely see us farm down interest in the Corentyne and Demerara licenses. Reference the Apache Block 58 farm down to Total. The upside here is you potentially get an appraisal / development carry, reimbursement of past costs, signing bonus, production based royalty, etc.
As mentioned above, if Kawa is successful (comparable to Maka), my floor price would be US $7.50/share. As news settles and a JV comes into the picture (with line of sight to drill the NW fan complex, other prospects, and appraisals) - I could see CGX settle above $10/share.
If the NW fan complex is indeed our second well (four sizable stacked sandstone reservoirs) and are successful there - my floor price would be $15/share.
My suggestion would be for you to run your own model given above methodology. What valuation do you come up with?