RE:RE:CGX/FEC...CGX may get more of a rise in the short-term in the success case, but I'm not sure if I agree that the upside will be greater than FEC.
Putting FEC's current production aside, not only do they have a large, majority stake of CGX, they also have a direct 1/3rd interest in the concession itself. I think that's something many people overlook when doing valuation comparisons. Basically, FEC controls almost the entire play.
This gives FEC a great deal of flexibility and many options to choose from going forward, ...i.e. sell off some or all of their CGX stake and hold onto their direct concession interest, ...or hold onto their CGX stake and farm-down some or all of their direct concession interest, etc.
The more I looked into it, the more I realized how undervalued FEC was. They pretty much hold all the cards here, ...and they're ultimately in the drivers seat going forward.
just my opinion