If we are going to speculate, can we not do so with the information at hand?
It is clearly stated in the Q1 Analysis, as provided by CGX, that they will need to either enter into a JV, sell some property, or issue shares to correct the present financial position (ie being cash strapped). With reference to the first NR relating to the 35million loan from FEC it was clear that FEC would call the loan if: (a) CGX issued shares that would in effect dilute FEC's holding; or (b) one of CGX's subsidiaries utilizes any sale proceeds to fund Wei-1. Now putting that information to use we can speculate that:
1. It may be likely that one or both of the two stagnant assets CGX (or its subsidiary, like ON Energy) holds (ie Berbice and Demerara) may be sold off as it is likely CGX (or ON Energy) will not meet its commitment under the respective PA's with the Guyanese Government and it seems that the goodwill we have been coasting on is running out. If so, it is likely that there will be some cash in the bank from that. However, given the terms of the loan, CGX cannot bank roll the Wei-1 drill with any of it. Given the timeframe for CGX to act in relation to Demerara and Berbice, would be probably best they sell off some acreage or a large stake to another company that can fast track those commitments. It may be the way CGX pays off its debt and floats its short term commitments...and become less dilutive as an acquisition;
2. Issuance of shares is unlikely, unless FEC gets to eat first. As any capital raise would be dilutive (even if it was another "equal and exciting opportunity") it would trigger the repayment of the loan. Plus what investor would want crumbs given that any deal would need to be approved by shareholders given the significance of the likely dilution; and
3. A joint venture is the only option worth its weight in salt. However, this will be a deal that will likely be managed and/or executed by FEC proxies. However the longer they take to ink the deal the more likely Berbice and Demerara are no longer part of the portfolio. So I say don't f**k it up!