CGX Energy Inc V.OYL

Stab at valuation

[Neil2021]

Simple model using mid-point range assumptions:

 

PP per barrel of resources (proven): $4.00 (range is $2-$6)

Mean no. of barrels of recoverable (proven): 570M (range is 514M - 628M)

--->Estimated PP: $2.3B (=$4.00 x 570M)

CGX diluted shares o/s: 339M

CGX % working interest in block: 27.3%

--->CGX share of proceeds: $622M (=$2.3B x 27.3%)

--->Value per share: $1.84 (=$622M / 339M)

 

I realize something must be off because SP hasn't budged, so market obviously disagrees or is vastly undervaluing, or simply doesn't believe the math until we have a deal in-hand.

 

Please let me know thoughts.

[Dell1]

We need to ask Christine aka Shedrills what does she think about your current estimation. She might use her own calculator to determine the potential stock value.

[IceDog13]

I would put the valuation a bit higher as $5 in the ground is the number I like to use. I agree with the $2 range. The confusing part is they throw out these kinds of numbers, with over 500mm recoverable barrels, then make the statement that they need to drill more to confirm "IF" Corentyne is commercial. $%@#*&%!!! I see three possibilites for 2024.  A) They successfully farm

[Udinese69]

Why does OYL not have all the market share value which is about $6.70 per share I own OYL ? tks

[bullishdude]

I do not know where your valuation calculations come from. A quick one ~500million barrels contigent resource. Value of this barrel is $0.50 to $1.00. CGX has 22% interest in the block. So a market cap = .22 x 500 x 1.00 =US $110 m shares outstanding 338m NAVPS = 1.35 x 110/ 338 ~ CAD $ 0.42 Only way up is to convert contingent resources yo 3P then 2P then 1P. All that requires capital which CGX

[Udinese69]

My math You wrote 570 million barrels at $4.00 =  2,280,000,000 OYL shares 339 million   OYL owns the Cor. Block. 100% OYL share price $6.72 I own OYL My point is that what ever value I believe is with OYL Fonterra owns 67% of OYL Just talking about what is ???? in the ground without al the BS

[bullishdude]

Nowhere in the world you will get $4/bbl for contingent resources. In deepwater even less CGX only has 22% of the block, irrespective of FEC's ownership of CGX. To get from contingent resources to actual reserves another 2 to 3 wells are needed, for which CGX cannot raise funds due to a vomplete lack of credibility of the mgmt team.....

[Udinese69]

my reply was with Neil2021 about his figures!  only Point OYL worth !!   has nothing to do do with Fontera! I quesss you are the newbie on this board with all the latest realistic facts and numbers Enjoy