Stab at valuation Simple model using mid-point range assumptions:
PP per barrel of resources (proven): $4.00 (range is $2-$6)
Mean no. of barrels of recoverable (proven): 570M (range is 514M - 628M)
--->Estimated PP: $2.3B (=$4.00 x 570M)
CGX diluted shares o/s: 339M
CGX % working interest in block: 27.3%
--->CGX share of proceeds: $622M (=$2.3B x 27.3%)
--->Value per share: $1.84 (=$622M / 339M)
I realize something must be off because SP hasn't budged, so market obviously disagrees or is vastly undervaluing, or simply doesn't believe the math until we have a deal in-hand.
Please let me know thoughts.