I've updated my analysis of PAK and I think that they are in a very difficult situation. I was very dissapointed by the earnings report their costs are very high, they are still incurring an operating loss :(
They are hoping to cut costs here and there but even if they are successful as they hope they will barely make any money their margins I believe will be in single digits. On this basis the shareprice has nowhere to go but down.
As mentioned on here I think the large sellers are those that have received share based payment for the properties that PAK aquired. Nobody has better perspective on the potential of those properties than those who are selling every day. The only buyer is the company buyback, once they stop supporting the price it could get ugly.
Even shareholder relations has gone dead. They have ignored several attempts to ask questions of their profitability which is my largest concern. Not good. I really wonder if the company can be profitable long term with the huge amount of money they have invested in coal properties. If the price of coal falls they will be in very serious trouble by my estimation.
Thats just my thoughts, I hope the company can surprise us with something material next quarter more so than announcing they have cut costs by a couple bucks per tonne.