RE:RE:Bored… It's all about probabilities at this point.
Suppose there is a 50/50 chance that the bill is successfully implemented and there is a decline in Pha's business thereafter.
Under such a scenario, what would Premier trade at in the future?
Let's use some arbitrary numbers here. Pha will trade in a range of 10- 20 cents and there business takes a big hit. Again, this is purely speculative. The other 50% of the time, the company gains momentum and the share prices trades above 50 cents/share. If you're really optimistic, you might use something like $1/share under normal economic times. Let's say between 50 cents and $1.
Pha (share price by 2026) =~ 50%*($0.10/$0.20/share) + 50%*($0.5/$1.00/share)
Pha (share price by 2026) =~ ($0.05/$0.1) + ($0.25/$0.50)
If we take the lower bound of the range, we get $0.35/share and if we take the upper bound we get $0.60/share. The midpoint of this range is $0.475. A logical person might conclude that the share price today at $0.245 represents a significant discount to its future expected values. If $0.475 is a fair value 3 years from now, an investor should expect to double their money or the equivalent of a 24.6% annual return from todays prices.
Are these return's sufficient given the risks involved? That's a good question.