POET Technologies Inc. V.PTK

Interesting

[ark88]

Amazing that now we get the fuller picture on what happened. One has to ask why now?
There's an element of contrition in this letter. Why?

POETs advantage, admittedly only by management,  has always been about Scalability, Cost and Performance Advantages......one thing never alluded to but finally noted in this letter is ADOPTABILITY.

We see now that POET doesn't have revenue because its having difficulty getting the industry to adopt its technology. The only path forward was a JV with SPX in China. Even this path would lead to limited adoption by only "niche" players, as noted in the letter. Moreover, it had no future beyond the 100, 200 and 400G optical engines.

So what now? Suresh in order to be relevant going forward, POET needs to modify and adapt to EMLs which is the industry standard. POET uses DMLs for the 100, 200 and 400G engines but it turns out EML are better suited for higher speeds, 800G and beyond. Doesn't this remind everyone of the GaAs fiasco.

So this begs the question, what are the issues here as they pursue the 800G+ market? What happens to POETs advantages, Scalability, Cost and Performance advantages? How quickly can they modify the POET interposer?

Its as if we are now back to square one, with all the inherent risks and unknowns.
This letter is like a revelation of the risks associated with holding this investment. An I told you so letter, in case things may not work out. IMHO

[pennyflipping]

Interesting? I'd actually say predictable...

[ark88]

The entire industry that POET belongs to functions with big players taking a stake in small players that show promise. One can see why POET is an outlier in this regard. It has failed to achieve broad industry adoption. Now it has no other option than to chase what the competitors in the industry are doing. Competing against companies that are far better funded and supported by end users. Thats a

[maestrodrumboe]

Very well said.. Suresh' address to the Noise today, served to create (as our silent friend would say).More FUD .financing was the primary issue of concern to most SH and Shurresh chose to dodge and downplay the most important question mark, moving forward. Now back to enjoying my Xmas music.now playing Mariah Carey ,,"last Xmas"

[ark88]

Why not share the joy...tis the season.

[lscfa]

I hope most are reading this NR differently than you. Co. is saying initial product sales will not appear as revenues on Poet's fins but on the fins of SPX.   But SPX is 47% owned by Poet after Sanan makes its full cash investment so 47% of SPX earnings will appear on Poet fins. Also, Poet sells OIs to SPX  to make OEs so there should be some early revenues for Poet. To make

[ark88]

SPX is in the rearview mirror with 100, 200 and 400G engines. If th eindustry is moving to 800G+ optical engines utilizing Externally Modulated Lasers why is POET utilizing Directly Modulated Lasers? particularly if EMLs are better suited for higher speeds? https://ayarlabs.com/optics-on-sc23/?utm_campaign=231204-nov-blog&utm_content=274167836&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&

[lscfa]

2023 AGM: Today, I read the boards and of course everybody barfs on the fact that we have manufacturing in China. But it is important to understand that it is a very, very, very large market. It is in fact the largest market for optics, 100 to 400 gigabits per second. But we recognize that things have changed. There are geopolitical issues. There is likely to be more and more constraints – and

[lscfa]

See slide image....   

[maestrodrumboe]

Is that slide current or does it show graphs and figures compiled back to 2022? 

[lscfa]

See slide 35, revenue forecast for SPX... https://poet-technologies.com/docs/presentations/Business-Update-Conference-Call-Apr-2022.pdf

[ark88]

The market in China may be big but do you know if or why POETs competitors are not there doing the same thing? Regardless, POET still has to develop the optical engine with EML. I have no idea how difficult this is, but if they are unable or are able but at a less advantageous level then what of the future for this company.

[lscfa]

Poet forecasts SPX revenue to be $180M to $300M in 5 yrs, which is just 5%-10% market share. That's a lot of margin for error built in in case the market does not grow that fast or competition surfaces.

[lscfa]

Aug 15, 2023 - Enhancements to the Optical Interposer now support 200Gbps per lane speed for both the transmitter and the receiver. The transmit optical engine has been modified for externally modulated lasers (EML), EML drivers and monolithically integrated multiplexers for single mode fiber applications for up to 10km reach. The receive optical engine can now incorporate the next generation