RE: If 3 out of 4 wells test positive...I believe it is still early day when talking about potential share price, right now there is a lot of paper from previous private placements that needs to get absorbed, consolidated and moved into good hands. With already over 2.6 Million shares passing hands, there are certainly buyers around absorbing paper. There are a lot of easy paper stumbling over each other to sell, I doubt the price will hold these levels BUT I would be pleased if it did (the markets are also pressing lower today).
As for value of Paramax in the future, this is still in the exploratory stage, HOWEVER, a very successful early stage nonetheless. If we just look at the Idaho Discovery and analysis alone. They are driling into 5 of the 7 qualified prospects. All wells drilled previously in this area were succesful, BUT what is really important here is that when a comparison of the previous wells was made to the new reprocessed seismic data and analysis, the report says that all of these wells were off-structure. This means that Paramax should have a very successful drill program, and they have already with wells 1 through 3 all hitting.
The report found on their web site under presentations, suggest the propability of hitting at least one structure is 95% (looks like we have hit 3 already and now moving to a 4th). If successful, and with 10 producing wells in each structure, the report says each structure could be worth NPV > $100 Million. Perhaps there might be 3 already (>$300M) and so forth, but more testing required. Also I am very intrigued about the 400 ft of fractured shale, this could prove very significant.
More than likely, once wells tested and value attributed to Paramax, they will be a takeover target. The takeover share price is dependent on a number of factors, all of which look positive now. But easily this could mean $1, $2 or more per share, depending on how many structures they hit and what the flow rates are like.
In the days ahead there will be lots of information flowing. 3 wells for testing (already successful), 4th well to be drilled in days, and a 5th well permitted and ready to drill. This is certainly going to get the attention of analysts in this sector which will bring much more attention to this play over the next weeks to months.