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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Paramax Resources Ltd V.PXM

TSXV:PXM - Post Discussion

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Post by Kel2 on Aug 13, 2010 11:47am

PXM

This latest well is .7 miles from the Espino.  All five wells are being drilled for the purpose of production.  This is not an exploration well or one that they are considering high risk.  One would think that it will be in the range of the previous 2 wells in this area 500M - 1.5 mm cf per day without any stimulation.
Comment by StockBadBoy on Aug 13, 2010 12:41pm
Kel2, I agree, this hole should be low risk, but one never knows until the hole reaches depth. Hopefully we will here soon. Now if this hole is a dud, then the scramble to the exit will begin very quickly and I suspect the stock price would unfortunately and very rapidly drop to the low 30s and even perhaps below 30. The lack of buying is not a great sign, perhaps this is time to lighten up and ...more  
Comment by Bigbadoil on Aug 13, 2010 1:04pm
If you read BUK's update it is obvious that any NR will be after the 2 wells are drilled, cased completed and tested.BUK is the operator and controls through the operating agreement, the details and timing of NR"s.The wells being drilled are very close to each other as below:Bridge Resources Corp. Provides Corporate UpdateTuesday, August 03, 2010CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Aug. 3 ...more  
Comment by StockBadBoy on Aug 13, 2010 1:23pm
Bigbadoil. A question to you. The reserve mentioned in PXM's last press release indicated, "AJM calculated the proved and probable reserves in regard to the successful wells that were recently drilled in early 2010. The proven and probable reserves totalled 322,400 barrels of oil equivalent with a net present value of $7.4-million discounted at 10 per cent before tax. The successful wells ...more  
Comment by Bigbadoil on Aug 13, 2010 1:55pm
The $7.4mm NPV 10 value is for 2P reserves from the 3 successful wells. Reserve engineers are very conservative with their areas and will basically put a "box" around the wells and call that area "reserves"..No this is not the potential of the whole Hamilton and Willow prospects. PXM in their presentation gives a "Gross recoverable reserves" for both of ...more  
Comment by Kel2 on Aug 13, 2010 1:58pm
I know that you "never know until they TD" but I don't think you are giving this play enough credit.  Internally they consider this developmental and fully expect to tie in five wells.  If they miss forget about .30......u will be looking at sub .20.  Chalk the lack of enthusiasm up to the fact that these wells will not be barn burners.  If, after drilling all ...more  
Comment by StockBadBoy on Aug 13, 2010 2:09pm
Bigbadoil. Thank-you, that was what I hoped you would say. As from my reading of the slide deck on their web site several months back, the consultant suggested that each development area was likely $100M plus, thus half of this is $50M and since one well is $7.4 M, thus 5x on a conservative calculation gets us $35M or easily more around $50M plus to Paramax which is what the original estimate ...more  
Comment by StockBadBoy on Aug 13, 2010 2:13pm
Kel2. Thanks also. This puts everything in great perspective. If everything goes as planned, by November or so we should be happily off to the races. In my mind, their success as the drill will be our success. They have EXCELLENT seismic data, as indicated by the success thus far. Hit a bigger and higher pressure well and that will catch investor attention. It is already half the way through ...more  
Comment by Bigbadoil on Aug 13, 2010 4:08pm
Kel2 you are right.The current drilling willnot get the big flow rares i.e 0.5 to 2mmcf/d at a pinch. The key to it is economics. The Hamilton pool ocver 60000 acres (which is huge) but is low pressure (shallower) and hence the lower rates. But it straddles the pipeline and therein lies the economics. Cash flow from this project by the end of the year is an attainable goal which makes the CFO ...more  
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