RE:RE:RE:RE:SHORT POSITIONS .... Well, in my opinion there are 2 factors at play when determining the SP - news induced/investor frenzy (not based on rational analysis but piling in on news) and SP valuation based on proved or probable reserves, production, or other industry/financial metrics such as discounted cash flows and annual rates of return on invested capital.
The fact that I have some industry experience, and I don't have the slightest idea, means I am going to defer to the experts who have crunched some numbers based on estimates provided by industry subject matter experts. They have provided numbers based on hypotheticals, but nothing overly concrete. So I would stick with Haywood's estimates, because they are a lot more concrete that your numbers just randomly thrown out with no backing. I'm not saying the SP can't get to $150-$250, but to warrant that valuation, a lot more needs to be known about the resource; and it is difficult to justify when looking at industry companies and their valuations. Stating a pie in the sky number over and over doesn't help anyone. If it reaches those numbers, I will be the first to say you were right (but at this point, it's just a wild guess).