RE:RE:Q1 was actually quite Decent in US Real disposable personal income increased ~ 2% in Q1. Its only when you annualize the total that it becomes 8%. Also, you ignored the part where I said the historical savings rate was around 7% and the US is well under the mean savings rate. This implies that savings is growing below trend and that excess savings will be depleted. You forgot one other point and that is the debt ceiling. Liquidity is going to be drained from the private sector as the government borrows money from private households to make up for the fiscal deficit.
I will highlight my own set of concerns for the economy.
1) Initial claims for unemployment rising 25.7% over last year. It increased significantly in the months of March and April.
2) Layoffs increased by 410k over the last 12 months. If you're a construction that has been laid off, it's not as if you can find work as a nurse and that has jumped significantly.
3) Historical record inverted yield curve. The bond market is telling you something. The stock market is not pricing in a recession but the bond market is. One of these two will be right.
4) 10 year treasury minus 3 month t-bill is currently at historical lows at -1.71% It has a perfect track record and I'm not betting against it. The soft landing of 1966,1984 and 1995 did not have an inverted yield.
5) loans and leases for all commercial banks has peaked as of March 15 and is trending slightly down. Credit is being withdrawn and less money to support the real economy is going to show up in future gdp prints.