Reitmans Ord Shs V.RET.A

Q1 was actually quite Decent in US

[nozzpack]

Currentdollar GDP increased 5.1 percent at an annual rate, or $327.9 billion, in the first quarter, to a level of $26.47 trillion. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $414.1 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $278.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $398.8 billion in the fourth quarter (table 8). The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and government social benefits.

Disposable personal income increased $571.2 billion, or 12.5 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $403.0 billion, or 8.9 percent, in the fourth quarter. The increase in the first quarter reflected an increase in personal income and a decrease in personal current taxes.

Real disposable personal income increased 8.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent in the fourth.

Personal saving was $946.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with $758.8 billion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the fourth.

[Torontojay]

1) Current dollar gdp is just another way of saying nominal gdp. Nominal gdp is simply the product of real gdp with the Gdp deflator. It is better to use real Gdp when comparing quarters as this eliminates the inflation component.  Q1 real gdp ~ 1% which is lower than Q3 and Q4 of last year.  2)  Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index excludes exports and includes imports. It

[nozzpack]

So, the talking heads got it wrong again.....savings were supposed to run out by February of Q1 Real disposable personal income increased 8.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent in the fourth. Personal saving was $946.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with $758.8 billion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as

[Torontojay]

Real disposable personal income increased ~ 2% in Q1. Its only when you annualize the total that it becomes 8%. Also, you ignored the part where I said the historical savings rate was around 7% and the US is well under the mean savings rate. This implies that savings is growing below trend and that excess savings will be depleted. You forgot one other point and that is the debt ceiling. Liquidity