From today’s market reaction to June 1We don’t have a press release from management about what they are doing during the pandemic and lockdown but a email from IR to one poster in a public forum. The company made no official statement about it. The content in the IR reply will be interpreted in the interest of anybody and that includes myself. The market react negatively and by my own spin it is on a downward pricing process as it assumes onboards is close to a halt from March. And it thinks It will pick up speed depending on the timing the States will reopen. From what we hear from the news the States only start to ease the lockdown and in a very gradual pace. I have the feeling the market is pricing for a total lost in at least 3 to 4 months progress. That can be converted into taking out the 50%- 100% quarter to quarter growth in revenue to reflect the present value of the stock until the June 1 on Q3 results. In other words, I see the sp will stay depressed in the 0.3 - 0.35 and extreme volatility can bring to a test below 0.3.
Previously I mentioned that the fair value of the stock is around 0.225 based on Q2 revenue of 400k. While lately the stock was trading in the range 0.35-0.4 it already priced in the 50% to 100% growth for Q3. If Q3 meets guidance (600k+) and Lisa reaffirms the same guidance for coming quarters the stock will have a V shape recovery to 0.6. If Lisa concedes on-boards will have a slow start beginning in June and will not provide future guidance then 0.22 here we go.
You can spin it in your own interest. I am being honest and reasonable to tell what I think. You don’t have to take it as what actually follows could totally prove me wrong.