why Canstar zinc 1 Patience Base Metals Outlook
Brook Hunt April 2012 Update
Zinc has the most promising fundamental outlook among the metals Brook Hunt expects that the zinc price should continue to increase and hit new cyclical highs mid-decade.
the confirmed closure of Xstrata s Brunswick mine in 2013 along with several other mines over the 2014-2015 period, means that there will be a significant shortfall between mine supply and consumption. 2014 is expected to be an essentially balanced year at -20kt, however, years of significant deficits are expected thereafter. Brook Hunt is forecasting a 2012 zinc price of US$0.94/lb (revised slightly down from US$0.95/lb), while the 2013 price forecast has decreased to US$1.04/lb (previously US$1.08/lb). The zinc price is expected to be range-bound for the most part of this year before starting its ascent towards the end of 2012 in anticipation of a tight market. Brook Hunt expects the zinc price to average US$1.24/lb in 2014 and steadily climb thereafter, possibly challenging the previous high of US$2.08/lb that was reached in late 2006.
from Mineweb
Author: Geoff Candy
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