ARPETROL LTD V.RPT

Valuation

[DocPat]

Was doing some more due diligence and reading back into the Sedar documents to the period when the reverse takeover of RPT occurred. 

The assets that are now ArPetrol's were acquired at 0.13 from a private co. That I believe was substantially owned by the existing directors officers. (If this is not the case please feel free to update me). 214,000,000 shares were issued for the assets. From other readings off Sedar the assets had a valuation of $50,000,000 and were vended into ArPetrol for a deemed consideration of approx. $27,900,000. A good deal for those who participated in the subsequent private placement of 228,462,300 share issued at $0.13. The stock subsequently ran up to $0.33/share if my understanding is correct. 

At at that moment in time the company was producing 288 boe/d. The company also generated $408,468.00 of revenue from its 100% owned gas plant. 

This is is all from the June 30, 2011 MD&A posted on Sedar. 

Now compare this to the MD&A Ended March 31, 2014 also found on Sedar:
Production of 242 boe/d with higher gas prices giving the company far better net backs. 

Gas as processing revenue of $2,200,000 for the first quarter of 2014. This is four times the revenue of when the assets were acquired in 2011 as noted above. 

Natural gas prices were $4.21/mcf for the first quarter 2014, $0.86 higher than in the first quarter of 2013 as a result of a newly negotiated gas contract. 

The result of the above is a combined operating net back for the first quarter of 2014 of $1,438,561. This is an increase of 421% over the first quarter of 2013.

So the assets acquired back in 2011 were making 288 boe (Now in 2014: 242 boe/d). The gas plant was making $408,468.00 for the quarter (Now $2,200,000 for the first quarter 2014)

Natural gas prices realized in the first quarter of 2013 were $3.35 (Now $4.21/mcf) 

When the assets were vended in they had a value of $29,000,000 in 2011. The assets are now making 400 percent more cash flow with no increase in operating cost, significant increase in tax pools, all of the onshore and offshore assets oil and gas assets having a significant increase in value sue to the increase in natural gas prices in Argentina. The gas plant having at least 4 time the value just based on present cash flow and giving zero value for upside from the proposed drilling by Total that would most likely go through the ArPetrol plant. This would potentially triple the production and net backs to ArPetrol from plant operations not including the up tick from the new gas price of $7.50/mcf that the fields would qualify for under the new field regeme in Argentina. 

Based on the above, the assets had a market value in 2011 of $29,000,000. With four times the cash flow and increased net backs and gas prices the company should be worth at least four times today. 

Based on the preconsolidation price, $0.13 should today be $0.13 X 4 = 0.52. In post consolidation numbers (25:1) that is $3.25 X 4 = $2.08/share. That's today, before any development wells are completed, before any announcement of drilling offshore wells is announced .. 

Capital markets are much better today and the potential of this company is better than it ever was. 

We are buying today at 25% of what the principals paid four years ago. Again, in my humble opinion, one of the best opportunities I have seen in years. 

All the best to longs, 

Doc.

[DocPat]

Minor correction: * due * $27,900,000 rather than $29,000,000 * $0.52 X 4 = $2.08/share.  The result is the same. IMHO .. Remarkable opportunity.  Doc. 

[groundpounder2]

Hi Doc Just a couple of questions.  Are you saying the if we had this operation 2 years ago, we would be at $0.52 per share or $13 a share post consolidation. Also just wondering why we are so confident that Total is going you run their pipe through our front door.  First if we were to expand where would the financing come from for say $50MM to $100MM. If these large volumes

[DocPat]

Hi Ground Pounder .. Geez, you know, you're right .. Blame it on the coffee as I was writing that or my iPad almost running out of juice .. Or that I'm not a mathematician .. But you're right.  To review my numbers:  "Based on the above, the assets had a market value in 2011 of $29,000,000. With four times the cash flow and increased net backs and gas prices the

[groundpounder2]

Doc  Again I appreciate your comments and thoughts.  In a month we have an AGM and I would expect that they are trying to line things up for the meeting.    I have to say I have find AGM's to  fall flat when it comes to annoucements and it is probably because my expectations are so high. Cheers

[TheRock07]

Thats puts things in perspective. Nothing has changed other than RPT had most unfortunate bad luck in drilling its first FV offshore well and stripped out all of its working capital and owed money due to excessive drilling costs. Those costs are now all but paid off and the gas plant is a cash cow, while gas prices are much higher and new price incentives have been introduced to find and produce

[2j3kl]

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[DocPat]

Good evening 2j,  I agree entirely, ArPetrol is grossly undervalued. Last quarter cashflow was 2.2 million dollars with a net of about 1.4 million dollars which is a net 5.6 million annually. Based on about 22 million shares that's a cashflow per share of $0.25/share. Presently ArPetrol effectively a utility company processing 3rd party gas. As such a fair value today would be 12X