RE: RE: Ugh! I was one of the yahoos that was hoping for an announcement in the first quarter.
A share price of 0.50 seems quite possible to me, if deals for the two lead compounds are announced. That may be starting to look like an iffy kind of "if", but there really is no way for us to tell at this point (well, at least I can't). This is purely a speculation.
The problem for the speculator here is calculating which is declining faster - the share price or the risk/reward ratio. Even if the probablility of success drops with time, it probably does not drop as fast as the share price.
This will continue to drift down, but, mathematically, it may not be a worse speculation now than at 10 cents or 12 cents. As it is, you only need a 20% chance of reaching 50 cents to have an expected value of 10 cents. The DD I've done make me think the odds are better than 20%, even if they seem somewhat lower than they did in January.
-a