Potential partner picks...1)Allergan complete buyout
2)Allergan 1067 buyout
3)Allergan 1067 upfront license
If you look since the excitement back in late January, The deal between Allergan and Teva was supposed to close in March. Management was very excited about making a deal with Allergan, once Allergan closed its deal with Teva. Unfortunately the FDA got very nervous on antitrust and is forcing Teva to sell $2 billion in assets before they will allow the deal to go thru. TEVA and Allergan then changed their closing date until June. So Sirona management has to wait until Teva and Allergan comply with the FDA. So far they are about half way there and still expect to complete the deal in June.
Dont forget in all this Pfizer was going to buy Allergan. That got shut down and I think Allergan said to Sirona, "Not until June when the Teva deal closes."
So here we sit.
If the Teva deal closes in June, then there is a slight possiblity that Sirona and Allergan will close in June. If not then I would fully expect July.
Sirona may have other offers, but until Allergan walks away they are the smart choice.
For me there are no other logical reasons why management seemed so confident in January and did not close a deal. Is was also noted in the presentation that one potential partner was in merger talks. Who is that?? Allergan.
Also, check out Sedi, management is heavliy invested in this. They have the most to gain and loose if a deal cannot be worked out.
I think they are playing this well. Going to industry shows and events and keeping active.
From my experience investors, and rightly so, get the most nervous when deals are very close, patience and risk tolerance either keep you in or send you out.
I have not found anything in my DD that would make me sell now. Share price fluctuations are hard on the nerves but the volume is low and certain house are still accumulating.
IMHO