RE:RE:TFC1067 sales in year 1 Under that scenario, means Sirona collects $8k USD per 10,000 units sold, or $8 million USD or around $10.5 million cdn per year.
You have taken 40% of the agents and assumed they order stock at zero (non active members) and scaled the average orders by agent sales ranking category, which is very reasonable.
On the product launch, most agents will pick up a tube or so for themselves, a few for inventory, and likely push a few more for sales within a three month quarter. Again, reasonable.
And that is for North American market, so figure that estimate for the other countries listed in the Rodan agreement, and you may have very conservatively 25-50% more revenue there to start - say $13-15 Million with growth from there.
Add on China and 0.04% production for the Asia region, then numbers start to scale very fast.
So for 1067 alone, we need Rodan to launch, we need a 0.04% product in approval development, and we need a considerable supplier base to keep pace with potential demand when it hits the market. If the product catches on, our arguments with management might shift to production logistics. Good place to be.