Sirona Biochem Corp V.SBM

Revenue forecast

[lscfa]

Per slide 21

 

2025	Units sold	Revenue	Qtr revenue
January	1,550	387,500
February	1,938	484,375
March	2,422	605,469	1,477,344
April	3,027	756,836
May	3,784	946,045
June	4,730	1,182,556	2,885,437
July	5,913	1,478,195
August	7,391	1,847,744
September	9,239	2,309,680	5,635,619
October	11,548	2,887,100
November	14,435	3,608,875
December	18,044	4,511,094	11,007,069
	84,022	21,005,469

[tylerreddick]

Extrapolate that to 100,000 units/month, which should be easily attainable once word gets out. That is serious money.

[tylerreddick]

December's number is $55 million of annualised revenue, or about 17 cents/share FD. Margins should be very good, one would think at least 35%, which would give us earnings of 6 cents/share. A biotech with growing earnings and more potential products could easliy demand a PE ratio of 30 (or more). Can anyone get their head around a $2 share price? That would get some attention.

[bealert]

The extrapolation sounds great.  I think waiting until 1st quarter of 25 is a bit slow.  They must be able to get at least some advance product out there before that.  Why should we have to wait another year after we have already waited over 16 years for this thing to get some wheels? About the bonus shares that Howhee received:  Are these free to him for backing the loan

[lscfa]

Geraldine noted in interview that clinical trials of formulations containing the active ingredient are required even if clinical trials of active ingredient have been done. 2nd half of 2024 is target for formulation trials. 

[LakeOromocto]

You call them and offer to loan the funds. How many PP have you participated in? Don't bite the hand that keeps the lights on!

[sakinny3]

So they are planning to sell this for 250$ a go? That's not exactly mass market price

[lscfa]

$250 is likely the price for a regimen like other companies do. e.g. 21 day intensive treatment, 50ml stronger face cream, 50ml milder face cream.

[tylerreddick]

It looks like that price is probably for the trays with a the 21 little tubes of treatment, thus the 21-day regimen https://twitter.com/SironaBiochem/status/1752228505402667105

[lscfa]

So $250 is likely for the serum (21 days), stronger face cream (4 to 6 wks) and milder face cream (4 to 6 weeks). After that, repeat sales of the milder face cream to maintain => $70 every 4 to 6 weeks?

[lscfa]

  2025 Starter Units sold Revenue Cumulative customers Lag Maintenance sales @$70/mo Total sales January 1,550 387,500 1,550     February

[sakinny3]

Can you tell me where all this estimated revenue data is coming from? I can't find it on the company websites.  Thanks

[lscfa]

Alternative view. The $21M revenue includes starter kits (serum, 0.5% cream, 0.2% cream) and reorders for maintenance (0.2% cream)   2025 Starter Kit 70% Reorder Starter rev @ $300 Reorder rev @ $100/mo Total Revenue January 1,550

[biorun]

Good table. I would think an analysis which shows a 10 year proforma, discounted in present value terms would give an interesting NPV per share number. Some numbers could be a 13x to 20x PE mumtiple, and 12% discount rate to reflect the corporate loan rate.

[gr0und1ng]

Now halve the numbers or move the decimal point one place forward and we are in a real possibility.   Not that anyone will be disappointed if the numbers are not reached ;-)

[sakinny3]

Hi Iscfa, on your reorder data, have you compounded as people will continue to reorder? Data seems to just account for 1 reorder?

[lscfa]

Sakinny, good catch. If the table is corrected for recurring monthly reorders the starter kit would cost $400 and the reorder $125/mo.  This seem high. Sirona's slide 21 does not add up anyway. If you eyeball the bars you would get 40,000 units sold vs 84,000 noted, and revenue bars add up to $16M vs $21M noted. We need more clarity.   2025

[forhandlaren]

Let's take a look on the anticipated product line and the revenue forecast. I'm not so sure that the revenue forecast includes Maintenance revenue at all, only the Concentrate Ampoules or possibly bundled with a box of Anti-aging cream. Concentrate Ampoules (2025) 21 day program Anti-aging Creams (2025) Maintenance with strong / mild concentration Hand Cream (2026) Anticellulite

[forhandlaren]

The initial lauch is planned for USA and Canada Q1 2025. The products are expected to be launched in Europe, Guld states and Australia New Zealand starting Q4 2025. China, Japan and South Korea in 2026. A two year rollout. A forecast is a forecast. I took the liberty to extrapolate the numbers by Iscfa into year two and ended up with stellar numbers - not counting Maintencance sales. In

[tylerreddick]

" Total margin is 90 percent. " Well, you just destroyed the little credibility you had.

[lscfa]

90% margin is gross margin. Marketing costs will be a large expense impacting operating margin and net profit margin.

[tylerreddick]

Thanks for confirming what I posted.

[forhandlaren]

@tylerrreddick I accidentally noticed your comment since I wasn't logged in. The 90 percent has been stated by management. For the record. I don't care about your perception of my posts, please feel free to ignore me. I'll log in now so I won't be able to respond you from now on.

[tylerreddick]

" I accidentally noticed your comment since I wasn't logged in " Even more credibility erased. 

[sakinny3]

Is it correct to say that the presentation all the forecast data is taken from has not formally been released by the company?

[JL202101]

https://glycoprotemim.com At the bottom of the web page, there is a Disclaimer. Actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, Sirona Biochem’s forward-looking statements due to the risks and uncertainties inherent in Sirona Biochem’s business including, without limitation, statements about: the progress and timing of its clinical

[lscfa]

Not sure how to project sales beyond 2025. Sirona is adding a hand cream in 2026....   GlycoProteMim™ Hand Cream Our age-defying hand cream, enriched with the power of GlycoProteMim, is specially formulated to target and reduce wrinkles on the back of the hands. This luxurious cream also moisturizes, hydrates, and provides overall skin rejuvenation. 

[lscfa]

I can envision GPM being licensed to someone for sales in Asia, possibly after doing further studies on different skins types.  The study done in Paris was on only 20 women. Were they all caucasians?

[forhandlaren]

Geraldine has mentioned the idea of creating specialized compounds for different skin types. It is an idea in general put through over the years, not sure if needed for anti-aging.  The roll-out in Asia is planned as the third wave, could be because of skin type adaption or just plain marketing logistics. South America, India, Indonesia and so on seems to be open for third party deals. That