Seeing it All Wrong
Someone mentioned that we cannot survive on the 150% per year projected 400G data center growth at our "current market share." (I put that person on Ignore, because that is the most stupid statement of the day, and I no longer need his/her absurd input).
Boy oh boy...where do I begin?
WHAT Current Market Share?!?!?
400G data center rollout has Just Begun in earnest, RIGHT NOW. As we speak! our "current market share consists of a few thousand cables recently deployed!
As the 400G rollout takes off, as EVERY reputable data center tech analyst has recently said, it will get Really Huge, Really fast, going from nearly NOTHING to Millions of 400G ports in short order.
Our "current market share" will go from NEARLY NOTHING to several percentage points of those MILLIONS of 400G ports a,d THAT market share is what ig going to grow at around 150% per year ove the next five years.
In other words, we are NOT going to grow our pidly little $1.5 million dollars a quarter by 150% year over year, we are going to grow OUR MARKET SHARE OF A RAPIDLY EXPANDING MARKET THAT ITSELF IS GOING TO GROW 150% PER YEAR....or, put simply, we are going from a FEW THOUSAND CABLE to HUNDREDS OF THOUSAND OF CABLES to MILLIONS OF CABLES, ALL OF WHICH EQUIPMENT NEEDS TO BE "REFRESHED" EVERY FEW YEARS.
In OTHER other news, we are going from nearly NO market share of a NON-Existing Market to an EXPONENTIALLY GROWING MARKET SHARE OF AN EXPONENTIALLY GROWING MARKET THAT NEEDS TO CONSTANTLY.....CONSTANTLY.....BE REPLACED BY NEW CABLES EVERY FEW YEARS...THE WHOLE TIME BEING GROWN EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN BY VIRTUE OF THE FACT THAT HYPERSCALE DATA CENTERS WILL ALSO GROW EXPONENTIALLY GLOBALLY FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE!
The pessimism here is classic "Three feet from the gold" sadness (look up what three feet from the gold refers to...)