Dr. Garren Biotech Insight ArticleBy Ronald Garren, M.D.
October 27, 2000
Biotech Insight News Alert:
Immunex, Genzyme Molecular Oncology, Curis, Genzyme Transgenic,
Biomira, Chiron, Amgen, Genentech
Biotech has been relatively flat despite market volatility. Immunex (IMNX) and
Genzyme Molecular Oncology (GZMO) both of which were mentioned in the
last alert have held up well. Again, to reiterate portions of the last alert, I think
that both Curis (CRIS) and Genzyme Transgenic (GZTC) are still cheap. I
would have to add Biomira (BIOM) to that list-this stock just can't seem to get
any legs, yet it is the only cancer vaccine company in late stages of enrollment
for a phase 3 trial in metastatic breast cancer. The patients all had severe
disease with tumor control or stabilization on standard chemotherapy prior to
entry into the study. They are then randomized to receive the Biomira vaccine,
Theratope, or placebo. The vaccine is administered in a series of injections
with time off between courses of therapy.
If Theratope is successful in moderating the course of aggressive disease it will
quickly be used in less severe cases where the oncologist is hoping to go for a
cure. What I am saying is that if Theratope is FDA approved for advanced
disease it will be used off label for less extensive disease even before
supporting clinical studies are done. This is a huge market. If the current phase
3 trial is successful, other companies will have a difficult time finding patients for
a placebo controlled phase 3 study in this subset of patients. How many
patients are going to sign-up for a blinded study when an effective vaccine is
out there? Companies will have a higher hurdle in going head to head with an
already successful treatment. I think that in this market a long lead-time and a
positive study will give a major advantage to this tiny Canadian company. So
far they haven't licensed Theratope they were lucky that Chiron gave up its
rights-I think a bad move for Chiron. Of course everything depends on positive
trial results but the earlier phase 2 trials had impressive figures. The company
also has a backup vaccine in earlier stage trials for lung cancer. I own Biomira
and have waited patiently for the last two years and I'm prepared to wait
another year or so-in biotech it is necessary to be patient.
Among the larger caps I continue to like Amgen and Genentech-these are
companies to buy on dips.
https://www.biospace.com/articles/biotechinsight102700.cfm
Your fellow investor,
DC Arnold