1st Hurdle Many do not see the fact that once the partner (who now needs SNV more than anyone realizes) signs onto taking an interest in SNV and also the JOA is now aligned with the US, of course for the longest time previously the chance of this happening was less than 10%. What has changed: Partner for some reason reached out to new CEO, MOU signed, management is in country (apparently on their own expense), in regular discussions with partner, partner maybe forced by regulator to participate with the documented partner on the PSC. Perhaps now the 10% COS has increased to ?????? 90% (so 50 pence a share)
If you believe the previous 3rd party reserve report and previous production rates than the chance of obtaining the previous share price calculations will be at least 95%. ($2/share)
Talk about addition reserves beyond previous report that new CEO can obtain from his work prevously? Perhaps 50% COS and $4-$6/share.
So 43% COS of $6,50-$8,50/share = $2,8 - $3,6 /share USD so $3,8 - $5 Canadian bucks.