RE:The DataSunvalley wrote: With regards to the 3.7% CR at 360 days and 450 days respectively , a shareholder friend mentioned that those were not very good results for a CR after a year and thusly he is deterred from increasing his stock position. I could not argue with him and I was at a loss for a explanation as to how the Pending figure should factor into the equation. It seems that I am comfortable with the numbers in my head but I could not seem to explain it in laymans terms if you know what I mean. Does anyone have a simple way to explain this as I seem to have a mind block.?
Hey Sunvalley, I posted a lengthy explanation 3 days ago, giving my take on the numbers. here is a snipet from that, and you can forward to your shareholder firend if you like.
Coop
The first scary number that jumps out is CR of 3.7 % , but what is that number really. In fact , it is 1 patient out of 27 presented as a percentage. The first BIG problem is that in fact, according to other numbers, only 9 patients have reached 450 days out, and if you redo the math, 1 patient in 9 is presented later on in the table under CR ( Evaluable patients ) with a number of 11.1 % . I think the 3.7% is misleading, as you cannot include them in final statistics if they have not reached the statistical endpoint. It's like a marathon of 27 runners, and only 1 of 9 known runners have finished, 8 did not make it, but therer are possibilities for others to make it all the way, so can you say only 1 in 27 have finised the race ? I think not . Now back to that analogy, how many are still in race ? Well math tells me 18 others are still in the race, but not all will make it to the 450 day line succesfully ? How many have a chance ? The pending column correctly show 66.7 % , which correponds to 18 out of 27 , but the real question then is how many make it to CR at 450 days from theat group. Now it gets a bit tricky, where do the other 18 stand ? My first take is that 18 patients have made it to 270 days, and 3 of them were CR at that point . How do I make that assumption, take the 27 totals patients, add the 3 from the 18 , and the one patient from the 9 group, and that gives you 4 patients total out of 27 reported at 270 days, which gives a 14.8 % , as you can see in the table in the 270 row under CR . So how many of the 3 remaining have a chance to get CR at 450 . I beleive this number is 1 or 2 , a bit of a guess here I admit. Hope this has not confused anyone further, but has helped at least expain the %'s a bit better .