The Dawg's stock analysisMy personal, non-expert stock movement commentary
- I know that many were hoping for a nice price bump because of the quarterly update, however
- At this time there is a limited pool of people who know about TLT. That pool has not had much reason to get bigger because there is no PR effort.
- As such the pool is made up of:
- TLT longholders who never sell
- TLT longholders who have bought max that they can buy
- TLT nervous followers who have bought some and would buy more given the right dramatic signal (sorry, yesterday’s release isn’t quite dramatic enough)
- TLT swing traders who have made small chunks of money selling a bit higher and then walking the price down to buy more at a lower price.
- The one other category would be TLT holders who are so suddenly excited that they rush to sell other stocks they hold to use the money for more TLT. These people are not jumping with a bigger purchase unless the news is BTD, AA…
Given that there is no PR, the most recent news can only influence the above pool of traders. But what can they do with the news? The first aren’t selling so not a huge volume on the ask (for 200+ m shares out there). The second are maxed out so can only watch. The third are not confident enough yet. The people who might sell other stocks in a rush to buy more TLT have not got the BTD signal yet. This leaves the share price entirely dependent on the swing traders and the nervous traders who jump out quite easily for not much reason.
Going forward the issues above will mean that the stock will trade low volumes, and probably walk in random directions here and there. If it is a walk down then that is fairly typical and is due to the swingers and the nervous traders. Unless there is PR to get new people to notice, there just are not any new buyers yet.
Big catalysts to come (the only way to change what is above)
- JV announcement would be great.
- RDW takes over and calls up every news outlet and starts a big PR push.
- BTD announcement (I’m pretty sure that few companies announce that they have APPLIED from my internet search. They announce when they get it for sure)
- IND application for GBM/SCLC leading to a new angle for a PR push and JV search.
- (Vaccine development…not seeing that as being a big thing for now. )
Please point out if I’m wrong in the analysis. I appreciate the good discussion.