Post by
DJDawg on Jan 24, 2023 11:09am
My speculation
Yesterday was ridiculous but I can see how it would happen. Millions of new shares with attached warrants came into play. I'm sure that there were three types of people out there.
1) People who bought the PP back in Sept and were on the line about selling on Jan 23. These people would be aware that TLT cycles up and down so often that it almost feels like a missed opportunity to sell a bit higher and get back in on the lower side.
2) People who were definitely selling Jan 23 as they had the warrants and were happy to take profit.
3) People who were not involved in PP but knew that the date was arriving and that they maybe should sell some shares to avoid the usual TLT oscillations that have been going on for years.
The way I see it all you needed is some selling to happen before all three groups above had some chance to jump in to try to sell so didn't miss chance to sell high(er) and by back in when lower. Once it started it was a FOMO. Except FOMO for missing out on selling in high 3's and buying back in at lower 3's or high 2s.
Now that that has happened I'm sure it will stall in mid 0.3 range until we get closer to Mid Feb when there were be FOMO in case RDW's pulls off something for the mid to end Feb window.
So be it. None of this reflects the value of the asset. Only reflects people reacting to the fact that everytime TLT oscillates a part of each of us feels like a chump for not selling and then buying back in a lower price point. (in hindsight). All IMO
Comment by
Longholder99 on Jan 24, 2023 11:20am
Problem is. One of these times you're going to sell....and it won't go back down. You will be sitting there watching the true investors make money while you make nothing in your attempt to flip 20 or 25k shares for your 2c gain.
Comment by
DJDawg on Jan 24, 2023 11:24am
Agreed. The other issue is that you may want to swing back in but the shares are not that easy to get. Other than days like Sept 23, there is never a huge supply of shares of TLT available.
Comment by
Rumpl3StiltSkin on Jan 24, 2023 11:21am
Dog, I think this all makes perfect sense. I do wonder tho how many 'people' we are talking about as yesteredays total volume was probably less than 1M shares.