Theralase Technologies Inc. V.TLT

Question for the Pharma Savvy

[plantrader]

I know some of you are fairly insightful about this industry. This question is for you. Forget high hopes and theoretical future potential for a moment, because there are a lot of "ifs" and a lot of execution and delivery that hasn't happened yet, in the bigger picture right?

It seems that what we do have is some impressive technology and some very encouraging partial clinical trial data. And a whole bunch of very compelling pre-clinical data. I'm wondering if any of you have a feel for what the company could be worth right now? Not based on a bunch of maybes/ifs, but based on the current set of knowns and unknowns. And without BTD. Or is the company only a buyout candidate after BTD, because that effectively removes some of the unknowns? I'm wondering if this is why the market shuns this company, not enough officially endorsed progress (FDA)? Too high % chance of failure at this point?

[socksnblonds642]

I think you nailed what most of us are thinking. The  value right now is  simply SP X shares outstanding. That's market capitalization. No real assets to calculate in. Warrants have no intrinsic value since SP is below the exercise price.  The last few PR's have a lot of potential but for now this info is immaterial. They are just saving mice. Mice don't invest. We all

[StevenBirch]

That is the most negative take you could have of the last few news releases. Of course value is not the stock price but revenue from the cancer division, any possible deals and even approvals from the FDA would add value which they don't have yet. What these news releases do is preview what future value looks like but more importantly it's ammunition to use in making a deal now or in the

[plantrader]

SB, What's your current value estimate prior to BTD? $100M on unproven potential? Or is it a moot subject without BTD? If yes to the latter, maybe that could explain why the market doesn't react much to the company's statements.

[beenthere]

A great example of how StockHouse " doesn't " work! SB you got 8 likes and as much I agree with what you are saying ..... ....I would like to vote a negative one vote because Iam a realist! I would like SH to allow everyone to vote a positive  +1 or a negative -1 That way the result is more to the actual feelings of the Board's ! IMO

[Alamir1111]

Pain management  market world vide 72 billion$ TLT share is 1.1milion gross after almost 20 years in business.that is 72 bill÷1.1 million =0.0000000??Nmbic trial started 7 years ago today 68 treated..yes nice updates but no$ . Ithink herpes and ru bcg might get a chance

[Longholder99]

Kool-aid can turn into Loius XIV Cognac in one NR.  Also drinking Kool-aid today and yesterday. 

[menoalittle]

Drink the kool-aid? Shoot, I have so much u should be serving it... lol.

[N0taP00p]

For many (not all) companies at this stage of development and with so much promise, one would think a $300M to $500 M market cap is very reasonable. At least a dollar+ per share.   The IP is there, the initial results seem to beat or equal the best out there, safety looks good, and all with just one or two treatments.  So what gives?   I think it's a combination of the

[plantrader]

@Not, thanks for the breakdown, appreciate it. Makes sense.  You're not a poop!

[N0taP00p]

LOL.. Thanks Plantrader. One last thing. Limited VC ecosystem in Toronto/Canada may be another big factor.  They need to pitch this to Mr. Wonderful. Convince him it's a 20 bagger. 

[menoalittle]

1/4 Billion is too cheap (I'd vote against it), but 1/2,Billion in a Merck stock exchange I'd be inclined to accept.  However, 1/2 billion in a cash buyout I'm not so keen on.  Would probably turn that down.

[plantrader]

It probably only matters what the BOD/Mgt votes, right? They'd far outweigh your, or anyone else's, combined votes. I agree though, even as a non-expert... would prefer at least $1B if it's a cash buyout. This is where other posters will scold me that this company is clearly worth several $B.

[Galaxym31]

Lets see if there are any mid size pharma company that might see a road to get in the ground floor of a new type of treatement that can rise above decades of slash burn and poison . 

[Bigkahuna57]

Ref: $250M for 33% of the company?  I hope I misread that, and you meant as a buy-in with performance milestone payments for 1 single indication.  A total buyout for the entire portfolio and all future development of the galaxy of cancer indications at one time?  I don't think many would consider that b/c negotiations haven't run the full gammit of valuation possibilities

[N0taP00p]

Yes, BK. What you said. As a buy in for one indication. That's all they have now.  Future valuation would be based on negotiated potential (based on indications that need to be funded for trials first). End of my speculations.  Back to waiting and watching. 

[Rumpl3StiltSkin]

Poop, I'd like to see Health Canada give them a grant in that $$$$ range. Then Let's see what kind of a real deal Dr. LBiati can get from a Pharma??

[N0taP00p]

I didn't know HCA does grants. Wouldn't that be a conflict of interest? Incremental milestone based acquisition from a larger entity ($3 - $7 - $10) would be par for the course, if and when they do get BTD. Like everyone else, I'm just hoping they get BTD first. After 3 NRs, we all know what's likely to happen in the next few weeks. They are probably out of money about now.

[CancerSlayer]

Agree....this exchange, the current cash position & the legacy of Photofrin can all act like anchors on value.  On the bright side, there has been a significant uptick in acquisitions of small/startup biotech companies in the past 6+ months...deals in the On the surface, this company's tech with its base compound (Ruvidar) has much broader potential than many (if not all) of the

[Tarbaby]

TLT was basically a one trick pony until very recently. Investors got tired of waiting for the bladder cancer trial to be completed..and just lost patience.  So the stock just languished. Now suddenly we get a smorgasbord of almost miraculous treatments like... vaccine for blood cancers..Radiation activated Rudivar to kill lung and other cancer...Ru bcg combo for bladder cancer...Rutherrin

[Gooseybear]

Agreed tar baby. If anything in these PR releases is not accurate, someone may go to jail.

[Kingpin68]

Yes Tarbaby, so true.  And let's not forget to add a cream for herpes and laser therapy helmet for Parkinson's.... What a great pipeline. I keep buying at these levels