Fair value for TUD, TUO, and AMK based on AUeq in the groundI was curious about what a conservative assignment of value to the most recent resource update from TUD would be, and I found the below article to be quite insightful.
It would seem from the analysis done in this article that the current price of gold has litte if any effect on what the buyout price of a deposit it, and that 56% of takeovers take place at a price of less than $45/oz per their global resource estimate. About 30% of takeovers occur at less than $22.50/oz and 26% between $22.50 and $45.00.
The Real Value of Gold in the Ground | Kitco News Based on that, I have taken the liberty of using a conservative assignment of $25/oz for the indicated and inferred resources of 30.72 Moz and broke the factor down into one 60% and two 20% totals to account for TUDs, TUOs, and AMKs stakes respectively. From a total number of $768M, 60% = $460.8M and 20% = $153.6M (USD)
Assuming current share prices of TUD, TUO, and AMK of $0.87, $0.97, and $0.12 respectively (USD again to make it more straighforward with gold pricing), and accounting for the maximum dilution that TUD will get from the PP, I estimate market caps of $220M for TUD, $57.6M for TUO, and $58M for AMK.
For their current market caps to reach their staked percentage of the theoretical $768,000,000 calculation, their share price appreciations would have to increase by a factor of 2.1 for TUD, 2.67 for TUO, and 2.65 for AMK.
DYDD....