Peru Presidential Poll Shows Humala, Fujimori in Tie (2)
2011-04-29 14:41:16.532 GMT
(Adds former minister’s comment in fifth paragraph)
By John Quigley
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Peruvian presidential candidates Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori are tied in the latest poll ahead of their June 5 second-round vote after earlier surveys showed the race narrowing.
Humala had 41.5 percent support and Fujimori had 40.3 percent in Lima-based researcher Datum International’s survey published today in newspaper Peru.21. The poll of 1,200 people from April 25-27 had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
The gap is the narrowest of the three polls published since Humala, leader of Peru’s Nationalist Party, won the April 10 first-round vote.
The Lima General Index of stocks rose 4.2 percent to 19,760.19 at 10:40 a.m. in New York. The index rose the most in almost two years yesterday and sol bonds surged after researcher CPI issued a poll that showed Humala with a 3.8 percentage point lead over Fujimori, narrower than his six-point advantage in a separate April 16-21 poll. Stocks had fallen 13 percent after Humala’s first-round victory.
“Fear of Humala has probably caused people who were undecided to change their opinion,” Fernando Rospigliosi, a former interior minister, said in a telephone interview. “The bourse’s decline, and the campaigns by various media against Humala that made people think they may lose their pensions, is fueling this fear.”
State Control
A former army officer and one-time ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Humala has pledged to increase state control over the economy, including natural its gas reserves, and raise mining royalties. Fujimori, daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori, says she will maintain existing economic policies.
The Peruvian sol rose 0.2 percent to 2.81555 per dollar.
The currency sank to a nine-month low April 27, prompting the central bank to sell a record $492 million, and the yield on the nation’s benchmark August 2020 bond fell to its lowest in more than two years.
Datum said 18 percent of those surveyed were either undecided or would cast a blank vote.
Humala’s campaign platform includes a pledge to introduce a free retirement plan for people over the age of 65 as part of a series of changes to the country’s pension system. The state pension would be financed by taxes, not the 84 billion soles
($29.8 billion) of assets managed by the nation’s private pension funds, Humala said last week.
Protecting Pensions
President Alan Garcia’s government will take steps to protect the pension funds’ assets because it is concerned a future administration may expropriate the funds, Finance Minister Ismael Benavides said April 18.
Fujimori, whose father is serving a 25-year sentence for directing a government-linked death squad, apologized April 25 for the crimes and mistakes committed during Alberto Fujimori’s 1990 to 2000 rule.
The apology may have helped swing undecided voters behind Keiko Fujimori, Rospigliosi said.
For Related News and Information:
Peru opinion polls: TNI PERU POLL BN <GO> Peruvian political stories: TNI PERU POL <GO> Top Latin America News: TOPL <GO> Top emerging market news: TOP EM <GO>
--Editors: Bill Faries, Richard Jarvie
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Joshua Goodman at +55-21-2125-2535 or
jgoodman19@bloomberg.net