RE:RE:Under appreciated value in legacy bus business Reading tea leaves from the q3 financials q&a responses it seems Q4 2023 sales of the 1200 truck may be dependent on how many of these trucks they hold back to allow for initial inventories for these new dealers they say they are expecting to bring on board in the first quarter of 2024. The Pioneer PO is there to be fulfilled but depends on that somewhat I think.
As regards full 2024 revenue. They certainly talked up intent/hope to assemble and ship majority of the stated 120 bus order backlog in 2024. If we took a conservative av. of 350k/bus that would be 42 Mil in busses alone. That said they never seem to hit their hoped for targets so if we aimed more for say 80 busses shipped that would be 28 Mil from bus deliveries. 64 dollar question/guess then is how many 1200''s can they assemble and invoice.
They seemingly have the orders between Pioneer's say 900 remaining of 1,000 order (that is just a rough guesstimate of 100 being shipped to Pioneer up to end of 2023) and the other 3 dealer agreements they have said they have in Ontario (see 2021/22 press released). Those total 160 units. If they actually delivered just these 1060 units (not including any addional shipments to new dealers or other new customers) that would be 145 Mil (all $ numbers in cad). So lets discounnt to be conservitive and say for whatever reasons they can only get 600 of these 1200's delivered and booked. That then is 80.5 Mil, add the 28 Mil conservative number for busses and we get to 108.5. Add in 5 Mil for parts/service rev and we get to appr. 114 Mil!!
Ie: it should be attainable. These are fractions of what they say they have in process. I have heard both Bill Trainer and John LaGourgue say in investor presentations in past couple months that they are at a "show me" time as regards investors and share price/company valuation.
There right . Every quarter now and 2024 overall is all about operational execution.
SHOW US!