GREY:VFGGF - Post by User
Comment by
splurgeon Mar 05, 2013 1:05pm
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Post# 21080690
RE: RE: RE: bottom?
RE: RE: RE: bottom? Yes this is part of my therapy in the wee ours of the morning. Could not get hold of Dr. Phil.
Declines rates aren't part of that equation as you know. I mention the high netbacks are attractive but offset by the higher finding costs ...otherwise we would enjoy 3 times recycling perhaps. Decline is a separate issue which better improve. Appreciate your point on delineation drilling and impact on reserves which impacts reserve life although I would love to see the company reassure us on that. I did not realize that. Usually, my philosophy has been to invest in companies with a long reserve life like Vermillion since $10 and 16% yield. Still holding there big time and CPG at $18 big time. Both were 30% each of my portfolio at times and remain large holdings. As for PRY, I have always hoped the waterfloods wiould add to reserves since their 2P are skimpy right now. Still surprised how much cash they went through in the past. One fear, not mentioned is the number of options they issue. I believe the fd number of shares o/s is 263 mln up recently again. Changes in management might have been a factor but I hope they don't dilute us away any further. Surprising, if one does a qtrly model, the impact of not growing production has (infact declining) in Q2 due to seasonal impact. This really hurts for a company with a high decline rate and changes numbers dramatically as opposed to getting production in early. I was shocked. Maybe they surprise us and report a huge spend in Q1.
cheers