GREY:VFGGF - Post by User
Comment by
ofirmeon Jan 20, 2014 7:19pm
308 Views
Post# 22113368
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:This stock won't move
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:This stock won't move You need to define how bad the assets are. if they just pay themselves, you are talking about a
return higher than $0.5 per share + debt ($130M + 0.5 * 217M SHARES = ~$240M).
Even a not so great area (such as the mississippian in oklahoma for example - sandridge) can
generate decent returns if you have decent infrastructure + low enough of a well cost.
In the case of this company, the current cost is $3.4M (legacy was $5.4M) and infrastructure is
close and no royalties until full payback. if you get a less than normal curve, you should be able to
get a full return at NPV10 in less than 4 years (worst case scenario - but includes a waterflooding
at year two which is not highly responsive).
Put the data I gave you in a spreadsheet and do the math. if it were to work as expected and
promised by management (which is not highly likely to happen, but still possible), the enterprise
value would have been close to $800M by now or more.