GREY:VFGGF - Post by User
Comment by
bubbleworldon Mar 03, 2014 11:44am
![](https://assets.stockhouse.com/kentico-cms/0341-00/images/Sprite.svg#id_Post_Views_Icon)
112 Views
Post# 22272959
RE:RE:Corporate Presentation
RE:RE:Corporate PresentationI bet there will never be a corporate presentation ever again. They are probably trying to sell the company for a high enough price to be satisfied.
Around half the book price, $250M and more than half going to the debt. $100M divided by
217.21M shares according to google)
would be 46 cents a share.
Not sure how the corporate world values the company. Maybe lower than this.
Still, even 2000 barrels is something. The last quarterly report had a netback of $60 per barrel
with an average sale price of just over $92 IIRC.
2000 barrels * 60 dollars * 350 days = $42 million a year.
The question is if the production will decline significantly still after the waterfloods
have been running a while.
Here is a chart I made projecting various decline rates.
The declines before waterfloods were typically 70% (0.7) in the first year.
Management sacrificed some production to convert some wells to water injectors, with
the idea of reducing declines. In my chart, if declines could be brought to 20% you would begin
to see a pretty reasonable picture of the company's valuation even with a single digit forward P/E.
If 70% declines continue then the earth is approaching the aeroplane rapidly. ![User image](https://i58.tinypic.com/sq2xoj.jpg)