Valuation Thoughts New thread but see the "Woulfe Projection Calculation" thread from last week for references.
Malaga gets 75% of Spot APT prices as they produce a concentrate that is 75% WO3. My calculations assume 100% APT as this is the purpose of the APT plant from the recent offtake announcement. Regardless, I have just assumed that Glanville's $375 LT price is conservative enough for analysts to use as a LT average for NPV calculation which is the most appropriate way to value miners.
Note that I did this calculation about 2 weeks ago pre-offtake PR based on the fact that the CEO told me at the Vancouver show they were likely to JV Sangdong at corporate level and retain a 50%-60% interest so it is most appropriate to look at 50%-60% of NPV less debt for value to shareholders. This made me zero in on page 3, footnote 2 of the Glanville valuation report below where they provided a 50% NPV value, but essentially to capture the risk still inherent at that point in brining Sangdong back into commercial production.
https://www.woulfemining.com/i/pdf/SangdongValuation.pdf
On page 3, footnote 2, the valuator assesses 50% of the NPV of Sandong @ $375 WO3/APT at $306M. $375 may be a bit steep for a LT WO3 price for NPV when analysts start covering Woulfe, but it was used nonetheless. Now, since Wolfe still has a 75% interest, gross up the NPV of Sangdong by 150% (75%/50%) to $459M.
I've looked at the NPV's of a bunch of $40k Au oz/year producers this year and you could safely assume a NPV for the Mubuk gold mine of $100M. I understand that 40k/year is a reaonable LT rate if they acheive commercial production successfully.
Conclusion: $459M for 75% of Sangong + $100M for 100% of Mubuk = $559M NPV to Wolfe shareholders before subtracting debt. CAPEX is $130M including $30M APT refining plant and managment (at Vancouver show) doesn't expect this to change in bankable feasibility upcoming. Wolfe has to finance 75% of CAPEX now or $95M. Assuming they debt finance this around 75/25 D:E, the closest big round numbers that banks would want is $75M.
Conculsion: My 20 minutes of semi-constructive thought leaves this as peak valation potential at 1.00X NPV(NAV)
$459M + $100M - $75M = $484M.
This is still around 4-5X upside from today's MC and goes up as gold prices rise (assured) and it WO3 prices rise.