RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:ManipulationYes there is tremendous manipulation in the Oil market.
Its World War Oil right now.
You have the Saudi's trying to halt rapid growth in US horizontal drilling/fracking. This is being done by maximizing Saudi production, and buying oil on the global market, then shipping it to the US for storage.
This is combined with US media propoganda claiming that US oil storage is close to full, and once full, US WTI oil will drop to $20 or less per bbl.
The result outside North America is fairly solid Brent oil prices in US$, and very solid Brent numbers in local currency, thereby minimizing the impact on most OPEC members
The result inside North America is reduced WTI prices, and maxiimum pressure on US oil producers.
Canada is stuck in the middle, with about a 15% subsidy from the CAD decline from about 1.1 to about 1.25 C$/US$.
On the other side of this OIL WAR are the US speculators who are buying WTI and storing it themselves - some of which is being sold forward in arbitrage, and the remainder is being held in speculation. These guys are keeping the WTI price north of $20 (ie where it is today).
At the same time, you have coat tail profits being extracted along the way by refiners.
I'm in Victoria BC for example, and here, regular gas is $1.20 per L (with oil in the $40's), it was about 1.29 when oil was sitting at $100 ish. That translates in to massive windfall profits. (Regular gas is significantly cheaper in Maui - for all those idiots thinking its a transportation effect)
The downstream sector loves the present situation...........top dollar for gasoline, and oil for close to free! Chances are, this group has something to do with the storage full BS circulating in the US/Canadian meda.
All of which leads us back to why!
The motive for WW Oil, seems to be to blow up the US tight oil sector. Once that objective is completed, the war should be over.
Judging by the number of oil rigs idled in the US since this all began, it looks like war is close to being won.
Lastly, for those of you claiming to know the actual global oil surplus, or demand, keep in mind that the US is the only place on Earth that gives out weekly storage and production numbers. These numbers are not global (ie for the idiots reading along, the numbers apply to the US, not Canada, and not China, not Japan, and not South America, not Asia, not Russia, not Western Europe, not Africa, not Eastern Europe, not Australia, not the middle East, and not anywhere else that is outside of the US.
There is apparently an oil surplus over demand, but we don't know its size. It is estimated to be 1 to 1.5 million bbl/day..............with emphasis on estimated. We know there is enough to transport to the US to inflate the US storage numbers, and we know there is enough for speculators to get what they need to build up their speculative positions. We also know there is enough for China to fill up its additions to its strategic reserve.....ie we know the surplus is real, but we do not know its actual size. To complicate matters, global demand varies significantly with the seasons.
We know that Saudi Arabia has increased its selling prices to Asian and Europe. From this we can infer two things. First Saudi Arabia is selling all the oil it wants to, and its customers are unable to find cheaper oil elsewhere. That suggests demand/supply balance in the Saudi market.
Returing to the original point about manipulation. Is there manipulation - absolutely, pretty well everywhere there can be. Its been ongoing for about 6 months now. More than likley its past the half way point now - obviously we won't know until we look back in retrospect.