Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

RE:RE:NAV Calculation

[BlueCollar51]

Reflect; Whenever I look Analyst reports, Corporate Presentations/Guidance, Reserve Evaluations, etc. I look at the “assumptions” used.
 
The 2014 YE reserve valuations were based on the Dec 31 2014 “forward strip prices”. Although I don’t know what the actual numbers are my understanding is that the “current forward strip prices” are considerably less. If that doesn’t change before Dec 31 2015 we will likely see another round of asset write downs. Only time will tell. Analysists, Institutional, Professional, some Retail Investors and last but not least Lenders place a high level of importance on this.
 
You seem to be confusing “Market Cap” with “Enterprise Value”. Comparing Spartan with Long Run is like comparing Apples with Oranges.
 
I don’t know much about the history of Spartan and I don’t care. A quick look tells me that their production is 95% Oil and Liquids and they have low debt. Long Run’s production is 44% Oil and Liquids and VERY HIGH Debt.
 
A lot of people seem to be fixated on how the Oil Price will effect Long Run. NG pricing is also VERY important.
 
Long Run isn’t alone. There is quite a list of Oil and Gas producers that were basically good companies with good assets that had too much debt. When the “tide went out” (the price of Oil collapsed) they found themselves in serious trouble.
 
As for the value of the Red Water assets I can’t say that I know anything about the reserves. It does look like the decline rate is high.
 
The “theoretical” value of something is largely irrelevant. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a Toaster, House, Oil and Gas Asset or a share in Long Run. If for whatever reason you are motivated to sell it’s worth exactly what you can get.
 
If you buy into the Golden Slacks $45 Oil Price you should sell any and everything you have that is exposed to the price of Oil while you can. If you have a different theory make you decisions accordingly.
 
I have a question for you.
 
Would you knowingly sit down at a Poker Table with a bunch of “Professional Card Sharks”? Only Fools and Degenerate Gamblers do that.
 
If you truly believe that the Oil and Gas Investment Industry is full of “Professional Liars, Cheats, Thieves, Manipulators and Incompetent Self Serving Managers” why are you at the table?
 
As I originally posted I have a SMALL position in LRE.DB (my current ACB is $45.40). Although the debentures don’t have the same “potential upside” as the common shares my theory is that there is a high probability that Long Run will survive or possibly be taken over and eventually I will receive face value and I am being paid well to wait.
 
As Always, Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!