Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

break down why its worth 1.27

[ROUGE719]

[

Long Run Exploration Ltd.

Energy - Oil & Gas - E&P

(LRE-T)

30Nov15: $0.21

1-Year Target:

N/A

Div. (NTM):

N/A

Div. (Current):

$0.00

Rating:

N/A

1-Year ROR:

N/A

Yield (Current):

0.0%

Qtly CFPS (FD)

(Next Release: Feb-16)

Year

2013A

$0.39

A

$0.50

A

$0.50

A

$0.44

A

$1.83

2014A

$0.56

A

$0.54

A

$0.45

A

$0.35

A

$1.85

2015E

$0.21

A

$0.24

A

2016E

Industry Specific

2013A

2014A

2015E

2016E

Oil Price (WTI, /bbl) (US$)

$98.01

$93.07

Nat Gas (HH, /mmBtu) (US$)

$3.72

$4.31

Production (mboe/d; 6:1)

25.09

31.17

Production (% gas)

47%

50%

Net Asset Value Scenarios

2P Base Case NAV

$1.27

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Capitalization

Market Cap (M)

$42

Net Debt + Pref. (M)

$698

Enterprise Value (M)

$740

Shares O/S (M)

207

Float O/S (M)

174

Control Blocks

Sprott, Cadent Energy

Voting Interest

8.1%

Equity Interest

15.6%

Source: Global Insight, Inc.

Valuation:

N/A

Key Risks to Target:

N/A

Financial Analysis

December-31

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

10-14

14-16

Average

Growth

Per-Share Data (FD)

Cash Flow

$0.52

$1.17

$1.42

$1.83

$1.85

Cash Flow Growth

70.7%

124.9%

20.5%

29.2%

1.2%

49.3%

Shares O/S (M)

43.1

87.8

125.6

135.9

202.4

Valuation Ratio

EV/DACF

15.7x

8.1x

6.6x

4.8x

3.3x

7.7

Price/Cash Flow

13.2x

4.9x

3.5x

2.9x

0.8x

5.1

Production

Prod-Oil (mbbl/d)

1.2

3.8

8.6

13.2

15.7

Prod-Nat Gas (mmcf/d)

7.7

11.8

27.7

71.2

93.0

Prod-Equiv (mboe/d)

2.5

5.8

13.2

25.1

31.2

Production Growth (%)

69.8%

131.2%

127.3%

90.1%

24.2%

88.5%

Prod/Share Growth

-69.1%

-38.1%

6.6%

25.4%

-20.8%

-19.2%

Production (% gas)

51.1%

33.9%

35.0%

47.3%

49.7%

43.4%

Free Cash Flow

Cash Flow from Ops (M)

$19.7

$74.7

$129.1

$230.1

$291.9

Net Cap Exp (M)

$72.0

$140.3

$210.4

$276.6

$304.0

Free Cash Flow (M)

$-52.3

$-65.7

$-81.3

$-46.5

$-12.2

Capital Structure

Net Debt (M)

$20.8

$124.8

$293.1

$452.2

$732.7

Net Debt/Cash Flow

1.1x

1.7x

2.3x

2.0x

2.5x

1.9

Net Debt/(Net Debt+Eq)

9.8%

21.7%

33.4%

42.3%

50.6%

31.5%

Capex/Cash Flow

364.6%

188.0%

163.0%

120.2%

104.2/quote]