RE:RE:RE:RISK / REWARDuograd wrote:
Exactly.
The arb on the Talimsan/Repsol deal was still about 8% even after the shareholder meeting to approve the deal because they still have to get government approval to get it done.
I suspect the arb here will drop to about 15-20 per cent after the shareholder approval on the 29th so stock will likely trade in the low .40's.
Another example is the Superior Plus (T.SPB) takeover of Canexus (T.CUS)
It is a bit different in that it is a share for share offer that was approved by the Canexus shareholders on Dec 11 / 15
There are some major regulatory issues to be resolved which will take some time and there is no guarantee that they will be successfully resolved.
The CUS shares have been trading at 20% or more discount relative to their SPB value if and when the deal successfully closes.
The CUS Debentures have been trading at a 10 – 15% discount to what they will receive if and when the deal successfully closes.
(I believe that the CUS Debentures are trading c/w accrued interest) In my “opinion” if the Sinoenergy offer is accepted by the Share / Debenture holders on Feb 29 the odds of it being successfully closed are good.
There is the distinct possibility that Regulatory approval could take longer than hoped for.
Regulatory bodies are Bureaucracies that move at Bureaucratic speed. There are Bureaucrats that like to drag things out to reminded everybody how important and powerful they are.
When Sinoenergy acquired New Star last year there was a PRC regulatory glitch but the deal did get done.
As Always; Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!