RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RISK / REWARDwilwal wrote: When you examine the detailed effort that Sinoenergy have put into this, it raises the likelihood that they will follow though to completion to a high probability.
It's little wonder that any deb buyer at this point can't buy any significant volume of debs until the high $60's. Clearly deb holders expect this to go through.
One thing deb sellers need to realize is that buyers will get all the interest back to August 2015. So an arb buyer could pay $75 and still make money on the deal. Normally, deb buyers and sellers exchange accrued interest but that changed in January when the interest payment was deferred/defaulted.
We could be getting ahead of things a bit. The offer has to be accepted on Feb 29. The odds look pretty good but it’s not a fact until it is.
Assuming that the offer is accepted the odds of the deal closing by the end of April also look pretty good.
It should be clear by now that Sinoenergy is committed to this offer, have the resources to get it done and have done everything possible re the PRC regulatory process. That said until the money actually changes hands there is some risk that the deal won’t close.
As for your comment re the Debenture Interest this was contained in the Feb 08 News Release;
“Assuming the Arrangement closes on April 30, 2016 and the Debentures are acquired by the Purchaser, the accrued and unpaid interest payable on the Debentures would be approximately $48 per $1,000. This includes the deferred semi-annual interest payment that was payable on February 1, 2016.” Assuming that the offer successfully closes in late April Anybody that has sold or sells Debentures between when the Interest was deferred on Jan 25 and then gives up the Interest. The purchaser will receive $750 / $1000 face value PLUS abt. $48 in Interest.
As for the LRE.DB recent trading the “Ask” and “Transaction Prices” seem to be grinding up but to date there hasn’t been much buying interest.
LRE has been trading in a tight range.
The market remains a bit skeptical. Probably due to the Failure of both MIE/Maple Marathon offers c/w the current turmoil / uncertainty in the Canadian Oil / NG and Global Oil Markets.
The days ahead will be interesting if nothing else.
As Always; Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!