Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Based on numbers provided by LRE in the last presentation

[VentureCapital3]

Assuming for 2015 WTI = $70, Gas = $3.65 and CAD/USD of 1.145, LRE should realyse $205M of operating cash flow. To acheive this LRE has to spend $165M in CAPEX. LRE debt can not be over 3X CF to respect debt conditions. LRE debt is arround $700M. The sensitivities are: for delta $1 WTI = $3.6M, for delta $0.1 gas = $3M and for delta $0.01 on forex it is $3M (when WTI and gas are at $70 and $3.65 when it is lower the impact of forex is also lower...). At the current prices there is a problem for sure. It could be managed, but there is a problem and a big one. I can't imagine LRE keeping the dividend if oil doen't move up by February. The only reserve I have it about the hedging. For me when LRE says WTI they are not including the hedging. If the hedging is included, htey shoud talk about realysed price not WTI.

[JohnJBond]

The key phrase - at the current oil/gas price there is a problem for sure. If yuo think prices stay where they are, then 50c is a reasonable forecast If you think prices follow economic principals and increae in the following months, then a 50c target is not reasonable. Those selling now, probably think oil and gas prices are here to stay. Those buying and holding, think otherwise. Decide

[groupguru]

Absolutely, Commodities have historically been a catalyst for horrendous world events. Lets hope that cool heads prevail, it would be nice (in my opinion) if World Governments  intervened before a Global Economic meltdown occurs.

[tvstock]

Note that is EBITDA that counts, so you have to add back the 7.5M  interest expense (anualized 30M) and 24M tax in last 9 months (annualized 32M) to  the  funds flows number to get the approximate EBITDA. Convertibles are not counted in the covenant ratio,  so net debt is 632M If curent conditions persist for the whole year,  yes it is a problem. It is a problem for

[TimTimTim]

So going by what many of you are saying, the Insider buying is more about them being hopeful with respect to an increase in oil prices rather than confidence in the company's ability to maintain the dividend if prices remain at $ 45.00 for the year.

[VentureCapital3]

Please read the notes in the financial statements. It is well explain. Also, NB obtain the same ratios than. For the price of oil, I'm sure it will move up. Perhaps, I don't know when. Anyway, I will wait on the side untill to see a change in oil trend. I will post the rigs count tomorow. GLTA

[tvstock]

Correction,  70cent cdn to 1US  should be  1cdn to 70 cent US.