Yangarra Resources Ltd YGRAF

Doable

[kavern23]

It should be at least feasible for Ygr to get down to a net debt of 105m by may 31.
don't think much explanation on why this should be target range with bank renewal in may.

I think Ygr can cf 22-23m in q1 and then 16m cf for April and may with maybe 4m carried over capex from q1 combined for April and may...giving fcf of 12m for those 2 months. Majority of fcf is going to be April and may. Possible Ygr can do 2-5m fcf in q1. Depends on capital is split between march and April which I don't know,

i mean I guess 100m net debt by may 31 is doable but a lot of things would continue to have to go right and the march wells need to be good as well. I have Ygr at 8m plus cf a month right now

[kavern23]

In theory the march wells should replace the declines from feb...and may oil numbers would be still fairly high.

[fullyautomatic]

I think the trouble is these nice new ferrier wells. I think YGR is a "minor" partner.  Minor is exact word given to me on an update from mgmt. What it means I wasn't given a breakdown. I was assuming less than 50% share. This was before the lawsuit was settled but I don't know if those are the disputed lands? Somehow I doubt they would run the rig on it before a decision..

[Helloworld]

Maybe the minor partnership was the 4 jv wells to the east with Petrus? Those are not part of YGR land in presentation.  On YGR presentation it shows them owning half the land of the 2 really good wells. Would think they would have over 50% ownership if they own half the land and did the licensing and operating. 

[kavern23]

Sorry Helloworld...i should have read your post before posting. I have similar thought as you on this helloworld.

[fullyautomatic]

Kav and Hello, Sorry dudes I was too lazy to look before. The good wells are in Chambers which should be 100% or very close...  The minor wells are in further east spud dates late Jan 24 to early Feb 24-- these are the minor interest wells... Sorry for the confusion.  

[kavern23]

Fully..do you expect debt renewal to be a problem? I don't....unless I am missing something. YGR should be CF 6m in Jan....and 8m range Feb on... 45-47m range for first half of 2023 CF. Capex 25m. Give FCF 20-22m range for first half. If Inplay can carry a 110m debt faculty (although I think it is this high as they will do a buy of someone)...YGR should be able to carry a 110m one.

[kavern23]

Sad irony is if natural gas prices were 3 dollars averge in 2024....with this type of oil percentage YGR is doing in Feb.....YGR would be CF close to 10m a month. YGR pretty easy to guage on CF. Whenever it is over 2500 barrels on oil side per day...CF is for sure 22-25m a quarter. Whenever 25000 barrels on oil side plus good natrual gas prices get it closer to 28-31m a q for cf.

[pennydredful]

looks  like  you  have  a typo  here   in  that   oil  on   second   line   should  read   gas 

[fullyautomatic]

I guess I would be more worried about forced further hedges on NG hamstringing any price strength if there ever will be any again.  I would not be surprised if they face that. I mean like 3-5 yrs terms Keeping the rig strictly in chambers may also force further costly base infrastructure spends to handle added NG production. Has to be some talks about working closer with PRQ if not a flat

[kavern23]

Totally agree with all your points fully. Tomorrow should get more claritiy on Petrus as if they settled any type of lawsuit it would be in their financials.  But i dont think it was petrus that settled. Best possible scenario is cenovus as they have some really good undrilled ferrier land...not huge but over 3 sections.

[kavern23]

Did they mean "minor" on the 4 1 mile ferrier wells that are being completed in march or these 2 2 mile ferrier well done in Feb? Because the 2 boomers done in Feb at least show on YGR presentation land map and I would assume 50% as Petrus shows bottom part of this and. YGR 50 and Petrus 50....was my assumption. The 4 1 milers are not on YGR land map in the presentation and these make