Post by
PetroExplorer on Nov 23, 2018 6:57pm
Let's See Who Big Debenture Holders Are
That would give us some indication, on which way things may go. But there isn't alot more to gain, by trying to get a slightly better deal.
The company is probably on life support right now, in which case the current market capitalization, is probably where it should be trading at, given the low oil prices.
As Cardboard mentioned, what a poor job of hedging! Hedged too low, and missed the higher prices, then felt good when the hedge expired in Q3, and made some small cashflow, only to watch the WCS differential completely skyrocket. How much do they pay people, to make bad decisions? Now completely unhedged, with massive differentials, and a falling WTI price, to boot.
The reason they are proposing this deal now, is there is a real danger of losing everything: the Company likely has negative cashflow, right now. Yes, Debenture Holders do stand first in line, but if a fire-sale of the assets, results in only $15 million of value, do you want to just take 40 cents on the dollar? My average price is higher than that.
I'd rather not have shares, but if the only way to save the company is to pursue some development work, then the Debentures have to be exchanged. But hopefully there are some bigger Debenture Holders that can negotiate a bit more, with little effort, and then hopefully give a bit more board supervision, in the go-forward entity.
The only other option is some merger, now that people can see that the Debenture reorganization will be done, in advance. There would have to be some proper assets merged with this stuff, that can then give cashflow, going forward. Then grow the asset a bit, hope for increasing oil prices, and push this stuff away, into a larger entity.
If oil prices don't rise, the share price is going to zero, in 2019. So the Debenture Holders could get everything, but the lack of investment would mean 100% of everything, might be less than the current market cap. So either this gets sorted out with a good plan, or else it is winding down, for alot less than the stated NAV, in previous reports.
This industry can't survive multiple years of low oil prices. I am still optimistic this latest oil price drop is a short-term dip, but I've been burned before. Zargon has to plan for the future, which is looking very grim right now, otherwise they wouldn't be trying to exchange the Debentures, at this time.