Here's something positive at $3/pound copperShould AUR's average selling price for copper in 2006 be $2.50, $3, or $5 and applying the formula presented in the Conf Call that each 5 cents over $2/pound will add AT LEAST (based only on 1 quarter from Duck Pond and getting nothing from Louvincourt scrap heap -- anything more goes directly to earnings) 8.5 cents/share to earnings of $1.79, we get the following:
Average: Earnings: Cashflow: NET Cash:
$2.50 $2.64/share $4+/share $5.50+/share
$3.00 $3.49/share $5+/share $6+/share
$5.00 $6.89/share $8+/share $9+/share
That formula is directly from the Conf Call. Imagine a 2007 at these prices with a full year from zero-cost 100% owned Duck Pond and you can add at least $1.25 directly to 2006 earnings. Now imagine a 2009 at these prices with AUR producing about 400 million pounds at under 50 cents/pound with Andacollo expansion. This stock would be considered undervalued today by me if it was $30/share as it would be trading at about 6 times cashflow and less that if you subtract the NET cash.