Investment analysis - AZDFor the record I am long, I thought I would partially share some proprietary information gather by one of the research firm I use to confirm my investments. It should maybe also explain some of the comments I have made in previous posts.
For the record, out of 3 research firms , they all come out with about the same comments - give or take, here we go:
AZD has a current Value of $0.24 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $0.98 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.
AZD has an RV of 0.36, which is very poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks.
RS is an indicator of risk. AZD has an RS rating of 0.78, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable.
RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. AZD has a Relative Timing rating of 1.81, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. . RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term.
VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the database. AZD has a VST rating of 1.22, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing.
GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. AZD has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 0.00%, which is considers to be poor. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data.
EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. AZD has a forecasted EPS of $- 0.10 per share.
P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. AZD has a P/E of - 9.80
EY (Earnings Yield) is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. AZD has an EY of -10.71 percent. This is below the current average of 2.91% for all the stocks in the database.
GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. AZD has a GPE rating of 0.00. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.16%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.27. Therefore, AZD may be considered to be overvalued.
CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. AZD has a CI rating of 0.92, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. AZD has a Sales Growth of -21.00% per year. This is very poor.
Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. AZD has a Stop of $0.82 per share. This is $0.16 below AZD's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops.
Summary: AZD is overvalued compared to its Price of $0.98 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
AZD has a Buy recommendation.
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As always and with any investment - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and Due Diligence, Charting and Mathematical computation cannot take into consideration NON tangible items and/or events that will have impact in the long term of the company.
This post is NOT intended to promote the BUY of AZD stock - nor a SELL of same, it is provided for information only.