Antrim Energy Inc. ATGYF

RE: bigbadoil and geomean

[geomean]

Irish, The P10, P50 and P90 nomenclature is most generally used to describe a prospective oil resource. [1P, 2P and 3P designations are most often used after exploratory drilling]. They are not used equivalently by each and every of the various governmental bodies and industry participants, but the overlap noted in the cited glossary is a much accepted view. My understanding from reading many pre-drilling reservoir evaluations is that the numbers 10, 50 and 90 represent an engineering judgment made prior to exploratory drilling taking place regarding the probability of hitting the cited, calculated amount of recoverable oil. Thus one is always provided with an estimate of the amount of recoverable oil with each level of confidence in the prediction. Thus, Bigbadoil and I are talking about how the drilling results achieved fit the prior projections by Antrim's geophysicists. In simple terms Bigbadoil and I believe that today's test results PR indicate that the Causeway play will have ultimate recoverable oil of between the 67MMBO P50 [50% or mean likelihood ] and the 226 MMBO P10 [10% likelihood] estimates made prior to drilling. My inference is that the figure is likely closer to the 226 MMBO P10 estimate because Antrim proved that the Etive formation produces commercial quantities of oil. But we both agree that we don't have enough data to do more than conjecture. If we had more data regarding how the P10 was determined, or the areal extent to the compartments, the size of the reservoir cross sections, porosity, oil density, etc. we could calculate/estimate how much oil is there and how much would ultimately be recovered. Insofar as Fyne and Dandy -- they are low risk [they have been delineated with eight wells drilled from 1971 to 1998] and high value [9.8MMBO reserves] I haven't studied them closely enough to recall off hand what upside exists there.